On politics, division and amplification bias

As a rule, I try my best to avoid politics. This is for a number of reasons — i.e. that I usually do not pay close enough attention to the intricacies of the political realm to feel confident that I can provide a thoughtful response — but chief among those reasons is that there is no real upside. For every respectful and pensive political discussion, there are fifteen screaming matches. That's an actual stat, you can look it up.*

But it is now 2016, a year evenly divisible by four, which means that the world will once again enjoy two quadrennial dog-and-pony shows: the Summer Olympics, and an American presidential election.

You can tell that it is an election year because social media is suddenly engulfed in politics. Much like spending a long weekend covered in Cooler Ranch Dorito dust while sitting on the couch watching Making A Murderer made everyone a criminal law expert, the relative proximity of a "meaningful" election has transformed the masses into a swarm of politicos.

This isn't a bad thing: an informed and engaged electorate is critical to the health of a nation. But are we informed? Are we engaged? Or are we simply dead-set on ensuring that We Are Right and They Are Wrong?

In June 2013, Bob Cohn at The Atlantic put together a series of charts about the division in America. This was catnip for me — I'm not just a sucker for The Atlantic, but also for infographics. Among the more staggering findings: more than 60 percent of Americans believe the country has grown more divided in the last ten years.

But allow me to suggest something crazy: I think we've tricked ourselves into thinking we're more divided than we actually are.

Let's use an analogy: Think about how often you hear about cancer. Whether it's killing a celebrity or you personally know someone battling it, cancer is everywhere. It is a constant drumbeat in our lives.

But did you know that cancer deaths are on the decline? According to age-adjusted data provided by the American Cancer Society, men's cancer mortality rate is down pretty considerably — about 34 percent — since 1990.

I know I was surprised to learn that, in part because of how much we see and hear and read about cancer. It's still clearly a significant problem, but its threat is amplified in our minds a hundred times over when we hear about it so often.

I think the same goes with our politics. So much of political coverage feeds into the divisiveness, either intentionally or by habit. We are told that there are two sides, and most everything we consume about politics is fed through that prism.

Social media is especially toxic in this regard, if only because we can self-select our information sources. Don't like that someone posted Glenn Beck's latest screed? You won't see it anymore. Don't like that someone's praising a story from the lefties at Daily Kos? It's gone from your worldview.

But at its core, I don't believe that Americans are actually that divided. I think that the things most people disagree on comprise about 2 percent of the Things That Matter To Us, with pretty universal agreement on the other 98; it only seems like it's the other way around because of how much we hear about it and what we consume.

I'm still staying out of politics — there's just not enough reason to wade into those waters — but from the sideline, I won't be cheering for one side or the other. I'll just be trying to remind everyone that both teams are on the same field.

*-it is not an actual stat, you cannot look it up